Scenario Planning for Implementing Construction Innovation

Innovation within the highly fragmented construction industry operating within an uncertain environment requires further development for the traditional planning techniques. Uncertainty that cannot be resolved cannot affect the consequence of the decision analysis to implement innovations. However, improved performance gained from adopting more innovative approaches requires commitment, uncertainties affected that innovations require flexibility to manipulate these uncertainties. This paper presents a modelling technique, currently under development, that simulates construction innovation implementation by their nature of experimentation, iteration and refinement activities. The proposed model targets balancing commitment and flexibility. This can be achieved by scenario planning designed to reflect the same prediction with different outcomes for uncertainties. Scenarios based on causality are suitable for rational reasoning processes, and mental models negotiation and expectations. The paper also discusses the main components of achieving successful scenario planning.